By: Sebastian Mariz, Owner and Managing Director of InFluenze Spain.
.
Spain, like most of Europe, suffered one of its hottest summers on record, and despite an extended summer break by the Prime Minister during the month of August, and the cooling effect of seaside summer resorts, the temperature of national politics has remained high over the summer holiday and into the new school year, and is expected to remain warm until the end of the year.
Extreme political heat over the summer months, following last spring’s sweaty corruption scandals, hit due to a migration crisis in the North African Spanish enclave of Ceuta, with a wave of up to 80,000 illegal immigrants storming the city on the 30th of July, knocking out the city’s law enforcement agents and social workers in less than 24 hours.
While most of those illegal immigrants have since returned to neighbouring Morrocco, political tensions remain high, and accusations continue to fly as to who was to blame for the massive wave of illegal immigrants, and the Government’s reactions to the crisis, both during and after the 30th of July. Public protests were planned for the 2nd of September, Ceuta’s municipal civic holiday, with cities and towns across the country, organizing protests for the way this crisis was, and is, being handled.
But the Ceuta migration crisis is not the only high-pressure source expected to keep the heat up this autumn and delay any desired drop in temperatures, and a return to more seasonal values.
With only 10 months left of his legislature, and general elections, which have to be held by July 2027 at the latest, Prime Minister Sanchez has several political hot potatoes, which are expected to keep political temperatures higher than normal during the harvest season, and which may even roll over into winter.
In addition to the territorial and migration crisis in Ceuta, Sanchez will have to continue to manage the corruptions scandals involving his wife, his brother and his closest adviser, the former socialist Prime Minister, Jose Luís Zapatero. He will also have to cope with a parliamentary coalition partner, Junts, on the verge of a nervous breakdown seeing its rival to its far-right, Aliança Catalana, catching up quickly in terms of voter support, and its exiled leader, Puigdemont, still not knowing whether he can, or cannot come back to Catalonia.
Spain’s Supreme Court must now decide whether to uphold the European Court of Justice’s resolution on the misuse of EU funds by Junts, in 2015, to finance the illegal referendum on Catalan independence. A decision, which is not expected until October, at the earliest, and until a decision is adopted by the Supreme Court, Junts will have no choice but to continue supporting the Sanchez minority Government.
In addition to the support from Junts hanging from a thread, and dependent on the decision taken by the Supreme Court, Sanchez will also have to face increasingly hostile and angry coalition partners to his left and in the Basque Country. Hostility, which will only likely increase, when he runs out of EU recovery and resilience funds to finance the social programmes and policy transfers, to those regions that support him (the Basque Country and Catalonia).
Faced with such a warm autumn, and balmy winter, in terms of political heat, Sanchez is undoubtedly already in election mode and ready to launch an election campaign centered on raising fears amongst Spanish voters, that generous public services, their public pensions and the welfare programmes they benefit from, including public health, are at play in the upcoming general elections.
His commitment to these services and to the welfare and public spending programmes he has help build and defended over the last eight years, will likely be framed within a draft budget law, tabled in the Parliament at the end of September, or beginning of October. A law, which will most likely be rejected by a majority in the Parliament, before the end of the year, or at the beginning of next year, but which will form the core of his election programme and campaign for the next general elections.
With municipal and regional elections set for May of next year, the question now is whether he will call general elections before, perhaps in March, or wait until the latest he can, until mid-July. Calling elections before the municipal and regional elections of May, would be tantamount to admitting defeat, and would allow voters to punish him, not regional and municipal leaders, for any anger or resentment they may harbor over his Government and his policies. Calling elections after, will buy him time, allow him to fully role out his election programme and campaign, and weed out any internal opponents within the party by exposing them to the outcome of the regional and municipal elections of May.
The Azores high of political pressure in Spain, is therefore forecast to remain strong and locked in place, at least for the next two to three months. Political tensions will remain high, and legislative developments in the Parliament will continue to move slowly. Low pressure systems, letting in cooler air, stronger winds and changes in weather patterns, are not expected until well into the new year, but could hit as early as March.
.
For more information, contact us and join our social media profiles on X and LinkedIn.
