By: Enrique Opi Tufet, Regional Manager of InFluCat and Senior Adviser on Tourism.
Catalonia’s Political Autumn
This autumn in Catalonia is expected to be politically active and complex. The regional government, led by Salvador Illa, continues to focus on practical issues such as improving transport, managing housing, and maintaining financial stability. At the same time, the independence debate has been pushed into the background, though it has not disappeared.
Junts adopts a dual strategy—cooperative in Madrid but confrontational in Barcelona. ERC, once firmly opposed to compromises, is now more open to agreements on social and fiscal reforms. A new development is that both Junts and ERC are addressing immigration more directly, a reaction to the rise of Aliança Catalana, a party gaining influence in rural areas with strong identity-based and anti-immigration messages.
Weak Signals
- Aliança Catalana’s growth: The party has moved from the margins to representation in several local councils, particularly in areas where Junts was traditionally strong.
- Junts’ position on migration: In some municipalities, Junts members are expressing concerns about “saturation” and calling for stricter access to documents and public services.
- ERC’s cautious stance: ERC supports agreements between Junts and PSOE on devolving immigration powers, but emphasizes that the process should be managed responsibly, preferably under PSC leadership.
- Criticism from Podemos: The party warns against the risk of racial profiling in Catalonia’s police, the Mossos, which has created tension with PSC, ERC, and Junts, all of whom defend Catalonia’s inclusive traditions.
- Business confidence in Illa: Actions such as Banc Sabadell’s return demonstrate that Illa’s leadership is seen as stable and reliable for the nationalistic fraction of Catalan society. This also raises expectations for his government.
- Debt relief from Madrid: Spain’s central government has announced the cancellation of €17.1 billion of Catalonia’s regional debt, negotiated with ERC. This provides important fiscal space for health, education, and other services, while reopening debates about financial fairness with other regional autonomies.
- Dialogue in Brussels: On September 2, Illa met with Carles Puigdemont at the Catalan government’s EU delegation. The meeting was described as symbolic but important, showing Illa’s willingness to maintain direct communication. It took place in the context of pending amnesty implementation and upcoming budget negotiations.
Three Possible Autumn Scenarios
Smooth Progress
Illa manages to advance his agenda on finances, housing, and transport with limited conflict. Immigration is discussed mainly in technical terms, while Aliança Catalana remains on the margins. This would mean a stable and predictable autumn.
Rising Tensions
If Aliança Catalana continues to grow, Junts and ERC may adopt a harder line on immigration to protect their voter base. The issue could shift from policy to populist debate, creating social divisions and making early elections a possibility.
The Balancing Act
Junts and ERC decide to manage the issue in cooperation with Illa rather than escalate it. Agreements on quotas and integration are negotiated, and although tensions remain, governance continues. This scenario requires political discipline and patience, particularly from Junts, which conditions much of its cooperation on the delivery of full amnesty for Puigdemont.
Conclusion: preparing for different otcomes
Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future but about preparing for different possibilities. Catalonia may experience stability, tension, or a fragile balance this autumn. In my opinion, he most likely outcome is the third scenario, but its success will depend on Illa’s ability to maintain dialogue and Junts’ willingness to wait for the amnesty process to be completed—something that may still face delays due to a European institutions intervention, particularly the EU Court of Justice with a preliminary ruling from a national court about the Amnesty.
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