By: Sebastian Mariz, Owner and Managing Director of InFluenze Spain.
.
After suffering another humiliating loss in the Parliament and against his own promises, Pedro Sánchez has called early elections for the 29th of November. He made the announcement yesterday morning, justifying his decision on grounds that Spaniards must now decide whether they want to vote for more social justice, more equality and inclusivity and more social environmental protection, or want welfare cutbacks, hedge fund speculators and to give in to the right-wing extremist movements tearing through the rest of Europe. He did so, visibly fatigued and demoralized, but convinced that he is standing on the moral high ground and on the right side of history.
The announcement is made in the midst of a large nationwide protest by mainly young female voters, over Spain’s housing crisis, with record high rental and sales prices. They are demanding real political solutions to bring these prices down, give the young access to their own homes, block speculative buying by hedge funds, and block home evictions of vulnerable tenants.
The humiliating loss in Parliament was over validation of two royal decree Sánchez quickly cooked up to respond to this nationwide protest, in which the right-wing parties, including his coalition partner, the Catalan conservative Junts party, denied him a simple majority needed to have the interventionist legislative initiatives rubber stamped by Parliament.
With the elections now set for the 29th of November, the XV Legislative Parliament has been dissolved and any further legislative and policy developments will be delayed until the formation of a new Government in January of 2027. Except for one. The adoption of the two royal decrees rejected in Parliament. Sánchez will adopt them immediately, under emergency pretexts, in a move that is legally questionable. A move, which may put Sánchez’ opponents into a check-mate situation.
If the conservatives and far-right position themselves against the two royal decrees, which is very likely, they risk mobilizing young female voters against them, and favoring a possible recovery of the far-left and even the socialist part of Pedro Sánchez in the elections.
If they position themselves in favour of the two royal decrees, which is unlikely, they risk enraging, and demoralizing, the bourgeois families that own multiple homes and earn rental incomes and profits from an inflated housing market.
Sánchez is aiming of course to win the elections with a strong majority Government, but is also undoubtedly aware that this type of arithmetic is difficult under the current political climate and that he may need to form a new Frankenstein II Government, with body parts from the left, the right and the anti-system parties. In addition to making sure his own socialist party, remains the head of a newly revived Frankenstein, with at least 120 to 125 seats in Parliament, he will need his junior communist partners to win between 30 to 45 seats, and his Catalan and Basque partners another 20 to 25 seats between them.
But this is not going to be as easy as in 2023, and things have changed significantly in Catalonia and the Basque Country.
Basque discretion
Sánchez counted on support from eleven Basque members of Parliament in the outgoing Parliament. Five from the conservative PNV and six from the far-left pro-independence Bildu party.
PNV, already in a bind with declining voter support, will have a tough time maintaining its five seats, if it positions itself in favour of intervening the housing market. Bildu, on the other hand, has much to gain from supporting such intervention and from greater mobilization of the young and female vote. Sánchez is probably counting on Bildu being able to muster up to 10 seats in Parliament and the PNV obtaining two to three seats.
At the moment, both parties have discreetly responded to Sánchez’ announcement. The PNV has stated that the legislature had reached its end and is calling on voters to vote thinking of what is good for the Basque Country. Bildu, in turn, has called for a useful vote that can block the formation of a conservative far-right coalition Government.
Both of these outcomes, with up to 13 seats up for grabs between the PNV and Bildu, are favorable to the formation of a new body part for ‘Frankenstein Part II’.
Multi-dimensional Catalonia
The Catalan sudoku is even more complicated than the Basque one, with six parties fighting for Catalan voter support, and key to the formation of a new Sánchez Government. The general elections on the 29th of November poses two connected questions for Catalan voters: who governs Spain, and whether Catalan parties remain essential to governing it.
For Junts, which had seven seats in Parliament, this is a high-risk test of its bargaining strategy. Its opposition to the housing decrees allows it to claim independence from Sánchez, but exposes it to accusations that confrontation has displaced practical gains. The strategic danger is losing both seats and relevance: even a resilient result, maintaining these seven seats, which is unlikely, would offer little leverage if PP and Vox secure a majority.
For far-left Esquerra Republicana, with another seven seats in Parliament, it can challenge Junts over housing while demanding evidence that negotiations with the Socialists deliver. Its difficulty is differentiation: supporting stability in Madrid and Barcelona risks making ERC appear too dependent on the Catalan socialist party. Given the board upon which these elections are being played, it is likely that ERC will be able to maintain its seven seats, or even potentially increase these to eight or nine.
And then there are the anti-system, anarchist and communist Frente Amplio, who, not having any representation in the current outgoing Parliament, may actually benefit from the current environment and win one or two seats in the upcoming elections.
Sánchez could potentially count on up to 14 seats from Catalan parties who have supported him up until now.
Sánchez President for a third term?
Taking into account all of the above, and the political check-mate the conservatives and far-right find themselves in, it is not unreasonable to predict that Sánchez may be able to form a new coalition Government, following the general elections, with a slim majority of four or five seats in Parliament, and a total of up to 180 MPs voting in favour of investing him President for a third term.
.
For more information, contact us and join our social media profiles on X and LinkedIn.
