By: Sebastian Mariz, Owner and Managing Director of InFluenze Spain.
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Regional and municipal elections in Spain, like anywhere else are rarely about national politics and policy, and mostly about local and regional problems voters are unhappy with and want fixed. The Andalucian elections last Sunday, the 17th of May, are no exception, and while many political analysts have tried to paint the elections and their results as a referendum for or against the central Government and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in particular, the results, a tremendous loss for the socialist party, should not be seen as such.
Sunday’s results are unlikely to mean Sánchez will call early general elections, or that his parliamentary coalition partners will table a vote of no confidence to topple his Government. Nor does it mean his stronghold on the party and control over the party will diminish. It could, however, mean a shift in policy priorities, with a greater focus on affordability and housing issues, and less on international politics and anti-Americanism.
But first, lets look at those results.
Mr. Juan Manuel Moreno, the current conservative Premier, with 41.6% of the votes and securing 53 seats in a Parliament of 109 seats, five less than in the last election, was unable to repeat his majority Government, and will now have to negotiate with the far-right Vox, for the two remaining seats to be able to form a new Government and pass the regional budget in Parliament. Vox, with 13.82% of the votes and 15 seats, came in third and has one more seat in Parliament.
The socialists, the big losers, dropped almost 2 percentage points, to 22.71% of the total vote, and lost two seats in Parliament, while the far-left, split into two parties, gained more than 250,000 votes and won one extra seat in Parliament. Interestingly all of the extra votes resulted from a significant increase in voter turnout, with a 64.84% total participation rate, up 8.71% over the previous elections in 2022.
These results reflect several important facts that can be extrapolated to potentially reflect voter sentiment at a broader national level, and which, in any case, are likely to have an impact on Sanchez’s agenda and policy, and the focus on opposition going forward.
Our perspective
The first, and perhaps most important, is that the Prime Minister’s attempt at securing the votes of young voters, through a national campaign centered on anti-Americanism, Chinese friendship and pro-Palestinian sentiments, has failed to materialize. While the young have showed up to vote, in significantly larger numbers, the increase has been to the gain of the far-left, not the socialist party.
But not only have the young rejected Sanchez’ candidate to the regional elections, Ms. María Jesús Montero, they have also rejected his far-left coalition partners, SUMAR, running in the regional elections under the umbrella of the PORA brand, and opted instead for a home bred variation, Adelante Andalucía, with deeper regionalist roots in anti-capitalism and anarchism.
Sanchez, and his candidate have therefore, so far failed, to act as a magnet of leftwing voters, as are his intentions, and rather than amalgamating the left into one or two parties, a visible and significant number of left-wing voters, especially the young, have opted instead to vote for regionalist home bred variations, further splintering the left into various political groups. This could have serious implications for him in the general elections and in particular in the formation of a minority Government, if he is forced into a similar situation in 2027. In the shorter term, it may mean less anti-American rhetoric and a greater focus on those issues, which have drawn left-wing voter attention, especially amongst the young. These issues are the nationwide affordability and housing crisis, but also generalized voter discontent over the perception of a decrease in the quality of public services, including healthcare, infrastructure, and in Andalucia´s case, high-speed rail services.
For the conservatives and the far-right, last Sunday’s results reflect growing discontent and concern amongst right-wing voters, over immigration and security problems, in Andalucía and in Spain. Vox’s extra seat in Parliament and 80,000 more votes, were mainly concentrated in more rural settings, where racial tensions between Spaniards and north African seasonal laborers, sit close to the surface and regularly erupt. But concerns over immigration and security are not limited to these frictions, but also reflect discontent, and even anger, at the central Government’s planned normalization of over 500,000 illegal immigrants. Sunday’s results are unlikely, however, to result in any changes at a national level to this planned normalization, or to the central Government’s immigration policy. For the conservatives, and for Juan Manuel Moreno, it could mean adopting an even tougher stance on immigration, the normalization of illegal immigrants and the reception of refugees.
Finally, it is also important to highlight another important reading from Sunday’s results, especially for the socialist party and the Sanchez Government. The female and feminist vote. The female vote did not abandon the socialists, as some in the party had feared, due to the sexual abuse and prostitution scandals surrounding some of the former members of Government. But María Jesús Montero, the most powerful woman in Spanish politics, failed to attract, and ride, a strong wave of female and feminist voter support. As a result, Sanchez is likely to focus on projecting a strong feminist approach and in whitewashing his Government and his party, from the scandals afflicting some of his former cabinet members.
In summary, while the Andalucian election results were a blow to Sanchez, his candidate and his policies, they are unlikely to result in early general elections, or in the fall of the Sanchez Government. Changes are likely in some of his rhetoric regarding the Trump Administration, he may adopt new policy initiatives intended to target affordability and housing problems, but overall, the political situation will remain very much business as usual at a national level. Sanchez will continue to focus on his Catalan and Basque coalition partners, on securing the socialist Government in Catalonia and on recovering socialist control in the region of Valencia.
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